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PURCHASE OF HOUSES IN THE UNITED STATES AGREES THAT'S CONFIRMATION

's confirmation of a post published a few days ago about the advisability of buying a house right now in American history.
As can be seen in the attached graph, taking into account inflation-adjusted prices of home made in the USA, sono crollati del 30% dai massimi del 2005, ma la cosa più interessante è il ritorno ad una valutazione che non si vedeva dal 1979.
Tre decadi di investimento immobiliare a valore reale zero (sempre tenendo conto dell’inflazione) lasciano un po’ perplessi sulla teoria che nel medio lungo periodo i prezzi delle case battono i rendimenti dei titoli di stato privi di rischio (fino al 2000 questo spot era riservato alle azioni che guarda caso negli ultimi 15 anni hanno guadagnato zero in termini reali), ma il cambio Euro Dollaro estremamente conveniente in termini fondamentali e quotazioni immobiliari a questo punto sacrificate, rendono le prospettive per la prossima decade molto interessanti.

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1:50 A DOLLAR, THE AMERICAN CASE BACK TO BEING A GOOD DEAL

The Economist has recently published the "Global House Prices", a useful tool to measure the progress of real estate markets worldwide.
The data refer to the second quarter of 2009 and show, year over year, a worldwide decline in house prices, except for Switzerland (+4.6% last year) and China (+1.0%).
The dizzying descents in property prices last year were recorded in Singapore (-24%), United States (-15%), Denmark (-15%) and Ireland (-12%) for the respect to Italy, the decline was just 3.4%.
Beyond changes Annual easily verifiable by the annexed table, what we want to emphasize is still excessive valuation of several real estate markets.
The last column in fact shows the appreciation (or depreciation) in home prices from 1997 to 2009 and immediately catches the eye important numbers.
For example, the case of Australia, Sweden, Great Britain, Spain, France and Ireland have had price increases over the past 12 years by over 120% with peak stratospheric for South Africa where prices have almost quadrupled.
Translated into annual terms the average annual increase was 14% in Australia, 12% in Sweden, 14% in the UK of 14% in Spain, 10% in France, 14% in Ireland and 32% in South Africa. If
Italy for what concerns the real property was 8% per annum, there are cases of deflation such as Japan (-3% per year), Germany (zero), Hong Kong and Singapore (-2%) who negative investment made in the last 12 years.
Chapter in the United States where recent violent corrections in prices brought the annual return on an investment property at rates ranging between 5 and 7%, depending on the indices used. If
for countries with double-digit annual returns seems to be still premature to speak of the end of the descent on the U.S. market considerations appear to be different. Meanwhile, the weak dollar
(e sottovalutato rispetto all’Euro come dimostrato nei post precedenti) rende interessante l’investimento; inoltre un rapido confronto con i rendimenti medi di investimenti concorrenti ci fa capire che spazi di discesa ci sono, ma appaiono limitati.
Per fare un esempio, il rendimento medio di un titolo di Stato americano negli ultimi 12 anni è stato del 4.65% (poco lontano dal 5% medio di apprezzamento degli immobili indicato dall’indice Shiller), mentre molto più disastroso si sarebbe rivelato l’investimento azionario con un +1.3% annuo (valutazione basata sull’indice Msci World).
Per chi volesse fare lo stesso confronto sull’Italia il rendimento annuo del Btp è stato dal 1997 del 4.63%, of 4.80% for the English equivalent degree and 4.28% for Germany.
conclusion now invest in real estate with the U.S. dollar to 1.50 no longer seems to be a folly, at least read these numbers and taking into account the underestimation of the greenback.

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DECEMBER AND 'THE MONTH MORE' CONVENIENT TO GO IN AUSTRALIA

One of the less considered by those who regularly use or travel currency trading is the season where every coin is subject over the years.
Obviously the Europeans should take into account the seasonal aspects of the "cross" against the Euro currency and a very interesting example is the relationship of the Euro / Australian Dollar.
buy the Australian currency is much more convenient from July to December because in the last 10 years on average 5 months to 6 Aussa saw a devaluation against the euro, with peaks in December high statistics (80% of the surveys Aude and average loss of 1.43%) in practice to cover the exchange risk for a trip to Australia or to purchase online from that country should wait until December when the currency reaches the maximum devaluation, at least according to this the seasonal statistics confirmed by the fact that going in Sydney between January and June proves disastrous economically speaking because in five months on average over 6 Aud Strengthens Against Euro.
Extending the horizon to the "cousins" of the New Zealand point out how bad month for travel or to buy the New Zealand Dollar to October because the last 10 years in 8 out of 10 Euro has lost value.
In the coming weeks we will return to analyze the seasonality of other currencies.